Climate Change Turning the Himalayas Into a Regional Warning?

Climate Change – The recent devastation caused by floods in Nepal has once again drawn attention to a danger that extends far beyond one country: the growing impact of climate change across the Himalayan region.

For Pakistan, particularly Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, the warning is especially significant.

Rising temperatures, rapidly changing glaciers, extreme rainfall, landslides, deforestation and unplanned development are increasingly putting communities and infrastructure at risk. Experts interviewed by The Kashmir Link say the consequences could extend from immediate flood disasters to a much more serious long-term water crisis.

The issue, they argue, can no longer be viewed solely through national borders.

Climate Change – Temperatures are rising

Pakistan has already experienced a significant increase in average temperatures over recent decades.

Sardar Rafeeq, speaking to The Kashmir Link, said Pakistan’s average temperature had risen by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius over the past 60 years.

The situation is even more critical in Azad Kashmir, he said.

“ If we look at this in the context of Azad Kashmir, you will see that this situation is even more critical,” he said.

Referring to data attributed to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Rafeeq said temperatures in Azad Kashmir had increased by approximately two degrees Celsius or more between around 1963 and 2013.

The significance of that increase goes well beyond temperature itself.

Higher temperatures affect snowfall, glaciers, water availability, agriculture, forests, tourism and human settlements — creating a chain of environmental and economic consequences.

Climate Change – The glacier warning

Perhaps the most serious long-term concern is water.

The mountains of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas are a crucial source of freshwater for the wider region. Changes in their snow and glacier systems therefore have consequences far beyond the mountain valleys where the ice is located.

According to Rafeeq, approximately 80 percent of freshwater in Pakistan and AJK depends on glaciers.

He also pointed to a substantial reduction in glacier area in AJK.

According to figures cited in the interview, the glacier area declined from approximately 15,111 hectares in 2000 to around 11,350 hectares in 2017 — a reduction of roughly 4,000 hectares.

The concern is not simply that glaciers are disappearing.

Rapid melting can initially increase water flows and flood risks. But as glaciers shrink, the long-term availability of water can become increasingly uncertain.

As Rafeeq put it, the disappearance of glaciers would mean that water availability would become a “very, very major problem.”

Climate Change – When natural hazards meet human vulnerability

Climate change does not automatically produce a disaster.

The scale of a disaster is often determined by how vulnerable communities and infrastructure are when an extreme event occurs.

Syed Ayub Qutub argues that human intervention has made some of the region’s natural vulnerabilities worse.

“We are standing beneath the wall of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas,” he said, warning that ice masses accumulated over centuries could create increasingly dangerous events in the decades ahead.

He also highlighted the role of infrastructure and poor planning.

“The highways that we have built have made this situation even worse,” Qutub said.

Roads, tunnels, settlements and other infrastructure can interfere with natural drainage systems, particularly in mountainous terrain. When heavy rainfall occurs, water still has to find a route — and if natural pathways have been obstructed, the consequences can be severe.

The lesson is clear: climate resilience cannot simply mean responding after a flood has occurred. It also requires examining how roads, settlements and development projects are planned before disasters happen.

Tourism and the environmental dilemma

For Azad Kashmir, however, the environmental debate also has an important economic dimension.

Tourism provides livelihoods to communities across the region, and restricting access to environmentally sensitive areas without providing alternatives could have serious consequences for local people.

Shah Ghulam Qadir points to this difficult balance when discussing areas such as Rutton and Baboon.

“As for the environment, definitely… In Rutton, the population already existed,” he said, arguing that environmental protection needs to take local livelihoods into account.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply to stop tourism or development.

It is to find a model that allows communities to earn a living while limiting environmental damage.

Forests: protection and livelihoods

The same dilemma exists in the region’s forests.

Qadir pointed to the impact of the Ten Billion Tree project in Neelum Valley, saying that the initiative had contributed significantly to forest preservation and reforestation.

But he also highlighted the economic realities facing local communities.

“If we can preserve the forests of the Neelum Valley,” he said, “people say they are being heavily cut down, but what can they do? People do not have alternatives.”

That question is central to environmental policy across mountainous communities.

Forest protection cannot depend only on enforcement. If communities depend on forests for fuel, income or other basic needs, sustainable alternatives must be created alongside conservation efforts.

Why Pakistan is particularly vulnerable

Pakistan’s exposure to climate change is shaped by both geography and capacity.

Rafeeq says Pakistan has repeatedly remained among the countries most affected by climate-related disasters.

One reason, he explains, is geography. Pakistan lies in a region where climate impacts are already severe.

The second is capacity.

“Our capacity to deal with these climate-induced disasters is not at the level it should be,” he said, arguing that this increases the country’s vulnerability.

Population growth adds another layer of pressure.

According to Rafeeq, increasing population is one of the most important local factors because it triggers and intensifies other environmental pressures.

More people require more housing, roads, water, food, energy and land — increasing pressure on already fragile ecosystems.

A threat without borders

Perhaps the most important message emerging from the interviews is that climate change cannot be addressed within the boundaries of individual states.

The Himalayan and Karakoram systems stretch across several countries. Rivers originating in the mountains cross borders and support hundreds of millions of people downstream.

A flood in one part of the region can affect communities elsewhere. Changes in glaciers and snowpack can influence water availability far downstream. Changes in the monsoon can affect agriculture and food security across national boundaries.

Qutub describes the region as home to roughly 1.5 billion people whose lives are deeply connected to the monsoon.

“The concern is that with climate change, the regularity of the monsoon may also be disrupted,” he said.

For him, the answer ultimately lies in cooperation.

“We can certainly destroy one another, but cooperation to save one another is essential,” Qutub said.

And his conclusion is perhaps the simplest description of the challenge facing South Asia:

“In the long term, there is no alternative to cooperation.”

A shared future

The floods in Nepal, the changing climate of the Himalayas, melting glaciers in the north and growing water pressures in Pakistan are not isolated events.

They are parts of a much larger regional story.

The Himalayas do not recognize political borders.

Neither does climate change.

For Pakistan, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, the choices ahead are increasingly urgent: protect forests, improve water management, build climate-resilient infrastructure, strengthen disaster preparedness and develop sustainable livelihoods for communities living in environmentally fragile areas.

But the challenge extends beyond Pakistan.

India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh and other countries connected to the Himalayan river systems share the consequences of a changing climate.

The question, therefore, is no longer simply which country will be hit hardest.

The bigger question is whether countries sharing the same mountains, rivers and monsoon system can also share responsibility for protecting them.

Because if the threat has no borders, the response cannot afford to have them either.