Climate Change Threaten the Future of Tourism Industry in AJK

Climate Change – Tourism has long been considered one of the strongest economic sectors in Azad Kashmir after water resources. However, climate experts warn that without sustainable planning and environmental regulation, the very industry that supports the region’s economy could eventually collapse.

In an in-depth interview, climate change expert Dr. Sardar Muhammad Rafique highlighted the growing environmental challenges facing Azad Kashmir, ranging from unregulated tourism and glacier melting to climate-induced migration and water scarcity.

Tourism Growth Without Regulation

According to Dr Rafique, tourism plays a critical role in improving economic conditions worldwide and holds enormous potential for Azad Kashmir. However, he warned that rapid and unregulated development is already damaging the local environment.

He pointed to the dramatic expansion of infrastructure in Neelum Valley over the past decade, describing it as “mushroom growth” that is disturbing forests, rivers, wildlife, and natural landscapes.

“People come to Azad Kashmir to experience its natural beauty — its forests, rivers, waterfalls, wildlife, and climate,” he explained. “If these resources are destroyed, tourism itself will eventually suffer.”

He stressed that without proper regulation, the region risks losing the very attractions that bring visitors each year.

The Need for Eco-Tourism

Dr Rafique emphasized that Azad Kashmir must shift from conventional tourism toward eco-tourism.

Eco-tourism, he explained, would allow tourism to grow while protecting forests, water resources, biodiversity, and local communities. He urged the Tourism Department to introduce clear environmental regulations and sustainable guidelines for tourism infrastructure and development.

According to him, sustainable tourism is essential not only for protecting the environment but also for ensuring the long-term survival of the tourism industry itself.

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

The interview also highlighted the broader challenge of climate change, which Dr Rafique described as “the greatest challenge of this century.”

He noted that climate change affects every major sector, including agriculture, water resources, food security, energy, and public health.

Although Pakistan contributes less than one percent to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts.

Dr Rafique explained that the Government of Pakistan has integrated climate screening into development planning so that future projects can be evaluated for climate resilience and sustainability during the planning stage.

He stressed that the Government of Azad Kashmir must also prioritize climate-focused planning and establish stronger institutional structures to address environmental challenges.

Climate Policies in Azad Kashmir

The formal climate change framework in Azad Kashmir began developing around 2015 with the establishment of the Climate Change Center in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank.

Earlier, the AJK Environmental Protection Agency had been established in 1998, followed by the Environmental Protection Act in 2000.

In 2017, Azad Kashmir introduced its own customized Climate Change Policy, followed by a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan in 2018.

Despite these developments, Dr Rafique believes climate awareness in the region remains at an early stage.

“Even educated people are not fully familiar with climate change concepts and terminology,” he said, emphasizing the need for greater public awareness and education.

Climate Education and Awareness

To improve awareness, climate change topics are gradually being introduced into school curricula across Pakistan and Azad Kashmir.

According to Dr Rafique, climate-related content has already been incorporated into textbooks for grades one to ten, particularly within science subjects.

The goal is to build climate awareness among younger generations so they are better prepared to deal with future environmental challenges.

Water Crisis and Climate Migration

One of the most alarming concerns discussed during the interview was the future of water resources.

Dr Rafique warned that glacier melt and declining river flows could eventually create severe water shortages in the region. Since Azad Kashmir’s energy sector depends heavily on hydropower, declining water availability could also threaten electricity production and economic stability.

He cautioned that worsening climate impacts may eventually force people to migrate in search of water, food security, and better living conditions.

“If sustainable planning is ignored today, climate-induced migration may become a major reality in the future,” he warned.

A Global Challenge

The interview concluded with a discussion of international climate agreements, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

Dr Rafique explained how global mechanisms such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Green Climate Fund are designed to help vulnerable countries like Pakistan adapt to climate change and reduce emissions.

He stressed that climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue but an immediate challenge that requires urgent action, sustainable planning, and long-term policy commitment.